Part 1: Jobs
Q1: What is the recent trend in Wisconsin jobs?
- Wisconsin lost 4,500 jobs in March, according to preliminary data for that month. That includes a loss of 4,300 private-sector jobs and a loss of 200 public-sector jobs.
- For a longer-term (since 2001) view of the job trend in Wisconsin, see this chart.
Q2: How much has Wisconsin’s job market recovered from the recession?
- Through March 2012, Wisconsin has gained back 4% of the jobs lost during the recession (left axis).
- Wisconsin will need to gain 164,000 more jobs to get back to even (right axis)
Q3: Is Wisconsin on pace to meet Governor Walker’s jobs goal?
- As a nonpartisan organization, BadgerStat avoids topics that are overtly political. However, we present the state’s progress towards meeting Gov. Walker’s job goal since we think it is of interest to Wisconsinites broadly.
- Through March 2012, the state’s job growth is below the pace needed to reach the goal. Wisconsin has so far gained 5,900 private-sector jobs during Gov. Walker’s term.
Part 2: Unemployment rate
Q4: What is the recent trend in Wisconsin’s unemployment rate?
- In March 2012, Wisconsin’s unemployment rate dipped by 0.1 to 6.8%. It continues to be below the U.S. unemployment rate.
Appendix: About the data
State employment data from the U.S. Labor Department are based surveys of businesses as well as statistical estimates and are subject to revision overtime. As a result, month to month changes should be viewed with caution. The most accurate way to view jobs data is by looking over several months.
Sources
Data come from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, except for the most recent month of data from Wisconsin which comes from the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development monthly jobs announcement press release. Those data on the most recent month are always preliminary until the next month.
Everyone seems to focus on the unemployment rate which seems to be decreasing when in fact the unemployment is actually increasing. The only true way to get an accurate view of what is actually happening in the state is to have an employment rate vs an unemployment rate. Go back to the day Walker took office and find out how many people were actually employed and compare it to the number of people employed today. I think you would see that the ratio would be astronomical compared to the phony unemployment rate being published. Maybe it’s time to show Walker these numbers and have him explain the real picture of what’s really happening in Wisconsin. It’s amazing how Walker has split Wisconsin. I am in my 60′s and have never seen people in the state so divided that families actually have difficult times spending time together. It’s time to reclaim Wisconsin and get back to a transparent government without a governor trying to make headlines everyday.
People leaving the workforce. There have been a lot of people after multiple years of unemployment that just give up. Once these people no longer file as unemployed they are dropped from the number. Generally when job losses goes up and unemployment goes down it is a very bad thing for the economy at large.
Jerry – I would guess, and this is my opinion – not facts, that we will start seeing an increase in new unemployment claims as 2012 starts rolling. If not, one can only assume that the drop in claims percentages means that people have ran out of benefits, but have still not found jobs.
Unemployment percentage can go down while job losses go up because the unemployment rate is based on the number of people receiving benefits. Once a person’s benefits run out that person is excluded from the calculation. Therefore, if more people go off of benefits then jobs lost (people going on to benefits) then the net result is less people on benefits and a decrease in the unemployment percentage. The unemployment number is flawed because it does not actually account for the people unemployed whose benefits have run out. This leads to the question – “What good is it?”
Only looking at the payroll report gives you an incomplete (and in this case, misleading) impression.
You have to look at the household survey (CPS), which shows the overall NET GAINS in employment over the past few months to see the whole picture and understand why the unemployment rate is going down.
For example, if GE turns 100 people from employees to independent contract workers the payroll report would show 100 jobs “lost”, but the household survey would show the correct picture of a unchanged net employment situation.
Jerry – It’s simple. The jobless stop looking for jobs that are just not there. Therefore, the rate appears to go down, when in actuality, the rate of joblessness in Wisconsin is skyrocketing, while the economy throughout the US improves. Walker has to “spin” it somehow.
So what public sector jobs were added? We cut 1000′s of education jobs and every municipality around here has eliminated workers, so where are they being added?
@ Main street
While your quick to point out the bad to make someone look like crap. You fail to point out the fact that wisconsin had a 13,500 jobs gain for the year total which doubles that of last year.
So instead of throwing out random trash on the internet to bash someone, take a look at your yearly facts first.
Unemployment rates drop with a loss of jobs because of the number of people who simply have given up and stopped looking for work.
How does Wisconsin lose 14.6k jobs in November and the unemployment rate drops 0.4%? A loss of jobs should increase unemployment.